LESSON 7: BRINGING IT ALL TOGETHER — YOUR FIRST CMH MINI-MODEL

Welcome to the practical lab.
In this lesson, you will build your first toy CMH mini-model using only a spreadsheet (like Google Sheets or Excel). No coding required.

We will simulate a small imaginary country called “Stableton” and forecast its future.

1. OUR TOY SOCIETY: 5 VITAL SIGNS

For simplicity, we track only 5 variables—one from each CMH category:

  1. POP (Demographics) — Population in millions
  2. UNE (Economics) — Youth Unemployment Rate (%)
  3. TRU (Politics) — Trust in Government (0–10 scale)
  4. EDU (Society) — Education Index (0–10 scale)
  5. MOR (Psychology) — National Morale (0–10 scale)

Our State Vector is:
X(t) = [POP, UNE, TRU, EDU, MOR]

2. THE RULES OF CHANGE (OUR “SOCIAL LAWS”)

Here are the simple equations for how each variable changes yearly:

  1. POP(t+1)=POP(t)×(1+0.01)POP(t+1) = POP(t) × (1 + 0.01) Grows 1% per year
  2. UNE(t+1)=UNE(t)+0.1×(POPgrowth−EDU)UNE(t+1) = UNE(t) + 0.1 × (POP_growth – EDU) More people + less education → more unemployment
  3. TRU(t+1)=TRU(t)+0.2×(EDU−UNE/10)TRU(t+1) = TRU(t) + 0.2 × (EDU – UNE/10) Education boosts trust, unemployment hurts it
  4. EDU(t+1)=EDU(t)+0.1×TRUEDU(t+1) = EDU(t) + 0.1 × TRU Trust → better education investmen
  5. MOR(t+1)=MOR(t)+0.3×(TRU−UNE/10)MOR(t+1) = MOR(t) + 0.3 × (TRU – UNE/10) Trust boosts morale, unemployment lowers it

Each equation uses only the variables from the current year to calculate next year.

3. SETUP YOUR SPREADSHEET

Create a sheet with these columns:

YearPOPUNETRUEDUMORNotes
20245015656Start
2025
2026
…………………

Step 1 — Enter Starting Values (2024):

  • POP = 50 (million)
  • UNE = 15 (%)
  • TRU = 6 (out of 10)
  • EDU = 5 (out of 10)
  • MOR = 6 (out of 10)

Step 2 — Add Formulas (for 2025):

In your spreadsheet, in the 2025 row:

  • POP = Previous POP × 1.01
  • UNE = Previous UNE + 0.1 × (POP_growth - Previous EDU)
    (where POP_growth = 0.01)
  • TRU = Previous TRU + 0.2 × (Previous EDU - Previous UNE/10)
  • EDU = Previous EDU + 0.1 × Previous TRU
  • MOR = Previous MOR + 0.3 × (Previous TRU - Previous UNE/10)

Step 3 — Copy Down:
Drag formulas down to year 2034 (10-year forecast).

4. ADD A CRISIS ALARM

Define a crisis as:
MOR < 4 AND UNE > 20

In a new column, add an ALARM formula:

= IF(AND(MOR < 4, UNE > 20), "🔴 CRISIS", "✅ OK")

5. RUN AND INTERPRET

After filling 2024–2034, you might see:

YearPOPUNETRUEDUMORALARM
202450.015.06.05.06.0✅ OK
202550.515.15.95.65.9✅ OK
…………………
203254.719.84.17.34.2✅ OK
203355.220.53.87.73.9🔴 CRISIS
203455.821.23.58.13.6🔴 CRISIS

Interpretation:

  • Society grows (POP ↑)
  • Education improves (EDU ↑)
  • But unemployment rises (UNE ↑)
  • Trust and morale fall (TRU, MOR ↓)
  • Crisis hits around 2033

6. INTERVENE: THE “EDUCATION BOOST” PLAN

Now, let’s change history.
Suppose in 2025 we intervene: we boost education spending, raising EDU from 5.6 to 7.0.

Change the 2025 EDU value manually to 7.0, then let the formulas run again.

Observe:

  • Does the crisis still happen?
  • Does it happen later?
  • Do other variables improve?

This is policy testing in a sandbox.

7. ADD UNCERTAINTY (MONTE CARLO LITE)

Our model is deterministic—no random shocks. Let’s add one.

Modify the UNE formula to include a “random shock”:

UNE(t+1) = UNE(t) + 0.1×(POP_growth - EDU) + RANDOM(-1, 1)

RANDOM(-1, 1) gives a random number between -1 and +1 each year.

Now re-run the model 5 times (F9 recalculates random numbers).
Each run is a different possible future.
Note: In some runs, crisis may come earlier/later/never.

This is your first probability cloud in action.

8. YOUR CMH LAB REPORT

After experimenting, write a tiny CMH Lab Report:

  1. Baseline Forecast: When did crisis first occur?
  2. Intervention Test: Did the Education Boost prevent/delay crisis?
  3. Uncertainty Test: In 5 random runs, how many had crisis by 2034?
  4. Conclusion: What’s the most effective variable to stabilize this toy society?

YOUR CMH HOMEWORK:

  1. Build the Model: Create the spreadsheet above and run it to 2034. What happens in your baseline?
  2. Intervene Twice: Try two different interventions:
  • Boost Education (EDU +2 in 2025)
  • Cut Unemployment (UNE -5% in 2025)
    Which works better?
  1. Add a Real Shock: In 2028, simulate a “natural disaster” that reduces POP by 2 million and MOR by 2 points. How does the model react?
  2. Define Your Own Crisis: Change the crisis rule to something else (e.g., TRU < 3). When does crisis hit now?

When you complete this, you will have built, run, tested, and intervened in a computational macrohistory model. You are no longer just a student—you are a practitioner.

In our final lesson, Lesson 8: The Limits and Future of CMH, we will step back and ask: What can this science never do? And where is it going?

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