FICSS Blog

Research Notes on Computational Macrohistory

Follow the latest from FICSS on Substack and browse the archive of research notes below.

Latest from Substack

AI-Team – my new project
22.08.2026 by Stefano Angeli
Using adversarial multi-agent AI to help me in developing CMH
The Month My Own Model Said No
30.07.2026 by Stefano Angeli
I wrote down the pass mark before I looked at the data. Then I looked.
The update that made the paper weaker
29.07.2026 by Stefano Angeli
A new version of the eleven-country Arab Spring paper is out. The number I was proudest of does not survive it, and I think that is the most useful thing in the file.
Can You See a Revolution Coming?
28.07.2026 by Stefano Angeli
What Computational Macrohistory is, what it did so far, and where it breaks
Substack Can Now Scan My Writing for AI. Good.
24.07.2026 by Stefano Angeli
Why I'm not afraid of a detector, and what my actual process looks like — start to finish, in two languages.

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From the FICSS Blog Archive

Blog is moving to Substack01.03.2026
Computational Macrohistory: A New Chapter January 2026 Project Evolution When I first launched this blog in 2019, Computational Macrohistory was a theoretical framework in its…
Computational Falsifiability (Axiom A8)28.02.2026
The Test of Truth: Computational Falsifiability (Axiom A8) Published: February 28, 2026 Read time: 10 minutes Category: Axioms Series What separates science from storytelling? Both…
Predictive Decay (Axiom A7)21.02.2026
The Horizon of Foresight: Predictive Decay (Axiom A7) Published: February 21, 2026 Read time: 10 minutes Category: Axioms Series Weather forecasters can predict tomorrow’s temperature…
Limited Reflexivity (Axiom A6)14.02.2026
The Prediction Paradox: Limited Reflexivity (Axiom A6) Published: February 14, 2025 Read time: 10 minutes Category: Axioms Series Predict a bank will fail. Depositors panic,…
Endogenous Indeterminacy (Axiom A5)07.02.2026
The Chaos Within: Endogenous Indeterminacy (Axiom A5) Published: February 7, 2026 Read time: 10 minutes Category: Axioms Series Imagine you knew everything. Every variable measured…
Temporal Dynamics (Axiom A4)31.01.2026
How Systems Evolve: Temporal Dynamics (Axiom A4) Published: January 31, 2026 Read time: 14 minutes Category: Axioms Series Earthquakes don’t come from nowhere. They emerge…
Structural Causality (Axiom A3)24.01.2026
Nothing Happens by Chance: Structural Causality (Axiom A3) Published: January 24, 2026Read time: 14 minutes Category: Axioms Series Was the French Revolution inevitable? In 1788,…
Historical Ergodicity (Axiom A2)17.01.2026
The Foundation of Everything: Statistical Aggregation (Axiom A1) Published: January 17, 2026Read time: 13 minutesCategory: Axioms Series Every historian faces an uncomfortable question: why study…
Statistical Aggregation (Axiom A1)10.01.2026
The Foundation of Everything: Statistical Aggregation (Axiom A1) Published: January 10, 2026Read time: 6 minutesCategory: Axioms Series I cannot predict how you will vote in…
What Is CMH?08.01.2026
What is Computational Macrohistory? Published: January 8, 2026Read time: 8 minutesCategory: Introduction In 2010, a Tunisian street vendor named Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire….
Note to our readers22.12.2025
A Note on Our Website Relaunch December 22, 2025 Dear visitors, You may notice that some blog posts and articles on this site are dated…
Lessons Learned21.12.2025
Lessons Learned: Why We Lost Our Website (And How We’re Fixing It) December 21, 2025 | By Prof. Galen Fontaise The Story No Research Institute…